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*Should be done with both Bottom Up and Top Down.Issues:1. Top Down -
May be slow in capturing structural change. Model specifications may be
wrong.2. Manager Bias - Bottom up involves taking mgmt. expectations.
they are typically overly optimistic.
Just P/E = VALUEo / EPS1
Assumes expected operating earnings yield on S&P = Yield of LT
Treasuries. Fed Mode = S&P EY/ 10yr Treasury YLDIf S&P EY >
Treasury Yeild ---> Equities are cheap.If S&P EY <Treasury
Yield --> Equities are overpriced. Issues:1. Ignores Equity Risk
Premium2. Ignores Growth of Earnings3. Compares Real Variable (Equities)
to Nominal Value (Treasury YLD)
Compares Current MV to Replacement Cost of it's assets.Tobin = (MV
Debt + Equity) / Asset Replacement CostIf >1 OverpricedIf <1
UnderpricedConsidered to be "Mean reverting"
Changes in: Technology, Restrictions on capital inflows, labor
mobility, trade restrictions, Laws, division of labor, Depleting natural
resources.
Adjusted For CPI or Earnings in today's $. As an example Earning x
(CPICurr/CPIpast) = Real EarningsPros:Accounts for Inflation / Business
cyclesCons:Ignores changes to accounting rulesVery Large/Small 10 year
MAEs have persisted, which limits usefulness for S/T forecasts.
1. Data could be scarce or unreliable. Fundamental changes could make
past data non-relevant.2. Stock market earnings growth rates will not
track economic growth for EM countries w/ structurally changing
economies w/ Rising/falling corporate profits. 3. Model does not include
inflation factors, won't hold up in erratic or hyperinflation.
Flash Card.
Top Down - Macro Based - Int Rates or GDP Growth. Compare relative
values of Mkt Composites to historical patterns and look for over priced
indices.Bottom Up - Micro Based - Focus on fundamentals of firms. Firm
vs Industry, management, cash flow analysis, etc.
G=GDP - This assumption holds up over time. If you believe economy will decline you can use a H model.
Estimates the equilibrium earnings yield. See Card for FormulaIf
Yardini >0 --> OvervaluedIf Yardini <0 -->
UndervaluedIssues:Uses a proxy for Equity Risk Premium - Yield on A
rated Corp DebtRisk Premium used is a measure of default risk not equity
riskAssumes earnings growth is constantGrowth rate (LTEG) might not be
constant or accurate reflection of LTSG.
MKT CAP / Replacement Cost of Assets - Liabilities
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