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limited investment knowledge or interestunrealistic expectations of
future returnsbounded rationality - investors' emotions impinge on
ability to make purely rational decisionsbounded self-control - failure
to follow throughbounded self-interest - econ theory "act exclusively in
their own interest" in reality people pursue actions contrary to that
controlling emotions... "don't dip into capital" heuristic.. a feeling
of self-control due to the perception of dividends as "income" not
related to capital
the recent performance grants the investor super-confidence in future
performance, overpaying for the stocks, receiving a lower return as the
reversion to the mean bears out...
arbitrary rules to guard vs lapses in judgment"don't dip into capital"
watch the guarantee of ftr prfrmnc based on prvs rslts
lower confidence in price targets than earnings projections attributed to a feeling of control
retained for all subordinates -- both the CFA charterholders and the non-charterholders
is there a reasonable basis? is there a distinguishing between facts
vs opinions? most of the time there is not a reasonable basis and it may
even simply be opinion
availability of information skewing the perceptionbear / mt lion vs bison in yellowstone
psychological allocations leaving us prone to different calculations of riskretirement account vs "mad money" account
anchoring: disproportionately influenced by their initial analysis... failure to adjust appropriately
don't break the confidentiality agreement unless investigated by CFA / FINRA, etc.is the information nonpublic? material?
return optimization"if i sell the stock and it takes off, i wil have
missed a great investment opportunity"more than the pain of loss... the
pain of feeling responsible for the lossMarkowitz comment on MPT ...
related to self-control don't spend capital heuristic, dividends for
expenses rather than capital
tied to mental accountingreframe mental accounts to better match their
preferenceslosing trades: transfer of assets vs sale at a lossnet
losses vs gains while inividual gains maintained as separate mental
accounts
exports...know more than most...leads to overconfidence
why institutional accounts will behave similiarly even though they may
have different missions, liability structures etc ... based on their
assumption that the peer group correctly evaluates securities and
markets
through the end of r2
familiarity - assumptions based on company stock, etcendorsement -
erroneously assume company endorsed by including it in set of options
DC have unrealistically optimistic expectations of future returns from various asset classes
emotionally reacting to nominal vs real valuesmortgage rates and
housing prices in the midst of boomsrelated to frame dependence -
cognitive and emotional response to inflation - Ann and Barbara example,
higher raise but lower real increase interpreted differently
prefer known to unknown... the familiar to the unfamiliar"this won't
do.... i've never heard of half the companies on this list"
seeking to avoid even short-term losses
overshoot in the direction of recent forecasts
investors prefer some frames to othersrelated to frame dependence...
"the way people behave depends on the way their decisions are framed'
underreact to changes in the information mixtoo conservative in their
assessment of the impact of new information... biased in the direction
of their initial estimate
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